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OIL

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The single most important product that drives not only the US markets but the world. The United States has become a major player on the world stage due to the invention of fracking technology but still has no clue how to use this as a asset.  The Trump administration using this as a bargaining chip will face dire consequences.

The United States sanctions on Iran will take effect next month on November 4th. Iran the 3rd largest producer of Oil and a member of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) in order for the Trump administration to attempt to bring their export total down to zero.  These sanctions move us ever closer to a war with Iran.  However Iran will probably sell their Oil to China who stopped buying US Oil in August do to the recent trade / tariff wars.  We also will probably see advanced aggression in the gulf by Iran blocking US Ships through the straight of Hormuz.

While US output is looking good and the over all effect of the demand for Oil may increase in 2019 it seems the players are shifting but US supply will continue.  This is however something to watch as it determines the price we pay everyday at the pump and to heat our homes as we move through the winter.

Still not all fun and games as US pushes Iran down to zero production the rest of the world and OPEC does not feel they can equal the demand.  The US added 4 new rigs in the Gulf of Mexico so at the moment the worlds Oil supply seems to be safe and prices will remain steady.

However there are many variables that I believe will cause this scenario to fail.  China stopping all US Oil imports at this point in the trade war I feel will ripple through the US Economy and cause severe impact on our everyday life by making $3.20 a gas an average through the winter.

Currently the price per barrel of Oil of Brent crude futures sits at $79.96 cents a barrel I expect that to rise in the next few months maybe even approaching $100.

Time will tell.


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